MOSAIC/LABS

Protocol · valuation engine

Pricing the unpriced

A human desk cannot price this dealflow. The engine can, because it is composite — many valuation methods fused into one estimate, exactly like the mosaic. Every input below is live; nothing is a server call.

V̂ᵢ(t)  =  Σₖ wₖ(t) · vₖᵢ(t)

Drag any estimate or weight. Weights are normalised. σ widens with data staleness, thin secondary volume, and disagreement between estimators — and when σ/V̂ gets large the protocol stops quoting tight and eventually refuses to list.

v₁ · anchored primary $42.00

last round price, time-decayed

v₂ · comparable multiple $55.00

peer multiple × own metric

v₃ · secondary signal $38.00

VWAP of verified secondary trades

v₄ · Thauten latent $47.00

learned fn of disclosure embedding

v₅ · market-implied $44.00

current AMM mid-price

composite fair value V̂ $0.00
confidence band σ ± $0.00
quote posture —

Protocol-owned liquidity sits at V̂ ± k·σ. Thin data → wide band → the engine quotes cautiously or refuses to list.

The five component estimators

v₁ — anchored primary

Last primary-round price, time-decayed and drifted by public-comp sector moves.

v₁  =  P_round · e^(−λ·Δt) · g_sector(t)

v₂ — comparable multiple

A peer multiple m (from the SAGE comp graph) applied to the company’s own metric x — ARR, revenue, users. 

v₂  =  mᵢ · xᵢ

v₃ — secondary signal

Volume-weighted average of recent verified secondary transactions.

v₃  =  VWAP(verified secondary trades, window T)

v₄ — Thauten latent value

A learned function of Thauten’s compressed embedding zᵢ of every disclosed document. 

v₄  =  f_θ(zᵢ)

v₅ — market-implied

The tile’s current AMM mid-price.

v₅  =  mid_AMM,ᵢ(t)

Adaptive weights & the band

Adaptive weights

Errloom updates wₖ by multiplicative weights against realized error — when ground truth arrives (a round, a tender, an IPO), estimators that were right gain weight: 

wₖ(t+1)  =  wₖ(t) · exp( −η · ℓₖ(t) )  /  Z(t)
ℓₖ(t)    =  ( vₖᵢ(t*) − P_settle )²  /  P_settle²   // scored only at settlement t*

Confidence band

The engine never quotes a point without a width:

σᵢ  =  σ₀ · ( 1 + a·staleᵢ + b/√n_sec + c·disagreementᵢ )
disagreementᵢ  =  √( Σₖ wₖ ( vₖᵢ − V̂ᵢ )² )

where staleᵢ is the age of the freshest hard data point and n_sec is the count of verified secondary trades. Thin data → wide band → the protocol quotes cautiously or refuses to list.

Line dynamics

Engine-priced → market-priced

The quoted mid is a blend of engine and market that shifts as a tile earns independent verified volume. New tiles lean on the engine; mature tiles price themselves.

engine weight α 0.00 —
quote_mid (blended) V̂ engine market_mid 
quote_midᵢ(t)  =  αᵢ(t)·V̂ᵢ(t)  +  ( 1 − αᵢ(t) )·market_midᵢ(t)
αᵢ(t)          =  e^( −γ · Nᵢ(t) )        // Nᵢ = independent verified-trade maturity
band width     =  2 · k · σᵢ              k = k₀ / ( 1 + volume_maturityᵢ )

Engine updates enter the anchor through a TWAP, never instantly, so no one can front-run a revaluation. If a trade would push price outside V̂ᵢ ± k_max·σᵢ, the swap reverts for that block and an integrity review is triggered.